Global Warming Myth

[howeird]

dinogrl posted a link to a recent news item I'd heard a couple of days ago on the radio, which reminded me I wanted to say a few politically incorrect words about the great global warming myth.

When I was a fledgling journalist back in the 70's in Astoria, Oregon, one of the issues had to do with floods, and how the greedy insurance companies were gouging home owners in the low-lying neighborhoods by using actuarial tables which went back 100 years. Turns out that about every 100 years there's a record-breaking flood. Which basically means weather cycles are about 100 years long. I'm over-simplifying here because my point is not changed by trivia such as sometimes it's 112 years and sometimes it's 80 years and sometimes it happens twice in a 5-year period. The point is, global warming is part of a cyclical weather pattern which we can expect to peak about every 100 years.

Accurate global weather statistics have not been kept for anywhere close to 100 years. It's only been since the advent of the network of weather satellites that we've had global stats capability.

What I'm saying is we're merely approaching the peak of a cycle. The same way the dust bowl days of the 1920's and 30's are now a distant memory, this year's Gorefest will be forgotten 80 years from now.

I'm not saying we shouldn't try to save the rain forests or drive cleaner vehicles. I'm just saying we shouldn't be all in a panic about it.

Which reminds me of something Henry Kissinger said when he was asked about the threat from Chile when a socialist was elected president there:
"Chile - an arrow pointed right at the heart of Antarctica."

Comments

[howeird]

Insurance
What we're talking about is charging a rate every year based on what might happen once in 100 years. As opposed to spreading the cost of the risk across 100 years. That's gouging. The insurance companies don't insure against the unexpected. Those incidents are ducked by calling them "acts of God".

The grad student has no source for global data much more than 30 years into the past. What folks yelling "global warming" seem to forget is hurricanes are affected by and affect all weather in the same hemisphere, and somewhat across the equator as well. Records of weather over the Pacific are very spotty up till about 1970.

[cinchntouch.livejournal.com]

spreading the cost of the risk across 100 years

That's not how it is done.

[howeird]

It depends on which state laws you're under. At the time in Oregon, the cost of insurance was supposed to be calculated on the likelihood of x $ of damage over a period of time, divided by that period of time. Plus shipping & handling.

It may never have been that way in CA, and it may not be that way in OR now, but it seemed like a reasonale formula at the time.

[cinchntouch.livejournal.com]

Now that flood insurance is a federal thing. Actuarial studies employ several formulas to determine their figures. To not get all technical they are concerned with the number of losses; the severity of losses and then they factor in other variable such as steps taken to prevent flood damage, ability to pay, whatnot.... Then they factor all that for inflation. There is a range of numbers that can be used. I think actuaries tend to rate these things conservatively. Usually, in an open marketplace, their conservative figures are tempered by market interactions. I don't know how this would fly with a federal program though.