It's not over till its over

[howeird]

Note that the Obama "victory" is based on a delegate count which includes people who are free to change their mind. If you only count delegate who are required to vote for a candidate, nobody is coming into the convention with enough votes.

McCain passed that mark handily fairly early in the primary process.

As I've said before, I'm not pro-Clinton or anti-Obama. I am pro-choice, and the choice will be made in late August in Denver. A lot can happen in two months, and until the delegates vote, it's not over. If Barak wins on the first ballot, fine. If Hilary concedes before the convention starts, also fine, but I would rather have her see it through to the end because nothing sucks more for a delegate than to show up at a convention pledged to a candidate who has withdrawn from the race. Been there, done that.

---

Lots of punditry this morning about who Obama will choose to run with him. If it isn't John Edwards, I'll be very surprised.

Comments

Re: The envelope please...

[howeird]

Sam didn't endorse Obama after winning some convention delegates. I can't see any reason Edwards endorsed Obama except to make a deal.

Re: The envelope please...

[damiana-swan.livejournal.com]

I think Edwards endorsed because he saw that the race was getting into knife-fight territory and has been working to (a) help move things along to the next step and (b) help negotiate a truce between the two parties. The way things have been going are *not* going to help get the White House out of Republican hands--they've already started running ads using Clinton's "commander in chief" comments to attack Obama, and that's just NOT a good scene.

Re: The envelope please...

[howeird]

Edwards had many ways to move things to the next step - he could have endorsed Clinton, for instance. McCain is a war hero and son of two admirals, he would have used the commander in chief line of attack regardless.

Re: The envelope please...

[herufeanor.livejournal.com]

Maybe it's naive of me, I think Edwards decided to back Obama because of his platform and style. Edwards is honestly populism incarnate, and Obama comes off a lot more populist the Clinton does.

[unseelie23.livejournal.com]

Edwards is a possibility, but I think he'd be better in a cabinet position. If Obama wants to make a serious push for someone other than Hillary, he needs a Washington outsider I think... perhaps a governor.

[howeird]

Good point. I don't think he needs an outsider, though, since he is one himself - he has hardly done any significant time in DC. I think he needs a southerner more. But I can also see Edwards as Secretary of State.

[herufeanor.livejournal.com]

There are a LOT of possible running mates, and I wouldn't be surprised if his choice is somebody less obvious, rather then another one of the Democratic primary candidates.

I've heard a few people float Wes Clark as a possibility, and that would make a certain amount of sense, when facing McCain's war record.

[herufeanor.livejournal.com]

Oh, and a reason he may not choose Edwards: Obama will have no problem getting the FULL support of Democrats, be they southern, northern, eastern, western, Martian, whatever. His choice of running mate does not need to specifically appeal to the left at all (so long as it doesn't actively alienate the left). He needs to shore up support among moderates and, if possible, even bite off a few actual Republicans.

Edwards is well to Obama's left, without a lot of foreign policy clout. His appeal is almost entirely among people who are already going to be supporting Obama regardless, and for the most part those who are dubious about Obama like Edwards even less.

Edwards could still work as a candidate. After all, Clinton/Gore obviously worked quite well, despite them both being very liberal. However, I don't think he'd be the best choice.